nPDP fattens APC, as PDP shrinks
By Chidi Obineche
The Phoenix
In the run-up to the commencement of political hostilities in 1998,
three major parties emerged on the scene – All Peoples Party (APP),
Alliance for Democracy (AD), and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
There were no ideological persuasions in their formations. People just
banded together to take their chances as the military retreated to the
barracks. In the
beginni
ng, there was nothing to suggest that the PDP would grow overnight to
become a behemoth. Tension, disagreements, disenchantment and desertion
reared their ugly heads early in its odyssey. The AD metamorphosed
from this grave misunderstanding, when some leaders of the PDP led by
the late Chief Bola Ige opted out to form the AD. At the time, there was
a rash of criss -crossing across the three parties as the politicians
sought for nesting, positioning and relevance.
Former Vice President, Dr Alex Ekwueme was the interim leader and had an
illustrious following of associates within the fold. A huge number of
them came from the second republic National Party of Nigeria, NPN, and
commanded heavy influence within. Calculations were wrought and Ekwueme
dumped the interim leadership for the presidential slot of the party. He
failed to take cognizance of the lurking, interloping military
overlords, who were keen and determined to regiment the process and
enthrone their lackeys. Against all calculations and predictions, they
hijacked the party from outside and foisted former military leader Gen
Olusegun Obasanjo on the party using tendentious military, Machiavellian
tactics, and carrot and stick approach made popular in the preceding
years by General Ibrahim Babangida (Rtd).
Ekwueme was defeated in the national convention of the party held in Jos
in early 1999. The emergence of Obasanjo as the presidential candidate
of the party signalled the first major face-off within the party, as he
immediately sidelined most of Ekwueme’s henchmen in planning campaigns
and major decisions. Opposition within the party grew in leaps and
bounds. The late Dr Chuba Okadigbo, Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, Wada Nas,
Chief Onyeabor Obi, among others took up the gauntlet as opposition
mounted against Obasanjo and the PDP. Obasanjo and the PDP nonetheless
coasted to victory in the April 21, presidential elections, won 21
governorship seats across the states, and an overwhelming majority in
the National Assembly. The total control of all power levers did not
bring much comfort and stability to the party, as it slipped into more
ferocious crises at all levels. Obasanjo’s courage, lack of
inclusiveness in his decisions, and independent mind created ripples and
internal opposition. 16 state chapters of the party were embroiled in
crises. Contrary to popular expectations that Okadigbo was to become the
senate president, the table was overturned and the late Evan Enwerem
emerged. His choice of Abubakar Atiku as against tested Northern
politicians like Rimi and Adamu Ciroma as running mate pitched the
northern oligarchy against him.
Political groups and associations flourished within the party and
struggled to wrest power from Obasanjo, who though without any
discernible structure, managed to stay afloat.
An exasperated Nas described the former president in late 2000, as
“power drunk, whose politics and regime will ultimately lead to the
implosion of the party”.
Onyeabor made allusions to a man “who is eating a food he did not know
how and when it was prepared, and since he has no sense of history of
the party will definitely destroy it”,.
Barely one year in power, the word “implosion” sneaked into the
political lexicon and was banded about with great relish. The long wait
for the implosion began as the party rocked from one crisis to the
other. So many were the crises, ahead of the 2003 presidential primaries
of the party, that there were heightened fears of a possible military
intervention. Democratic dividends and developments took the back seat
as the battle to seize control of the party raged on all fronts. Inspite
of these sombre pictures, peace moves for reconciliation continued
unabated as the party held on to power till date.
Playing hamlet without the prince
The PDP under unrelenting convulsions over the years had managed to rule
in utmost instability. No major party had emerged to give it a strong
run, a situation former nationalist, and first republic minister of
aviation Chief Mbazulike Amaechi sees as “the lack of challenge which
has made it to be docile and self-serving.
“The fact that it survives every crisis in its way has made it too over
confident and relaxed, believing that it will overcome whatever comes
its way. This belief is entrenched and that is why the leaders are
hardly moved. Infact sometimes they look for the trouble themselves”.
Somehow, the latest crisis which led to the formation of the New PDP by
some aggrieved governors and leaders and the lack lustre manner in
which it is being managed may become the first real major test for the
party. The pioneer chairman of the Lagos chapter of the party, Chief
Olorunfunmi Bashorun, admits that the party’s bad day has come.
Bashorun, who is now in APC, told Sunday Sun that “Every dog has its
day. PDP’s luck cannot drag forever. Yes, they have survived many
upheavals, but the magnitude of this one is nothing compared to previous
ones. Again, you have to look at the nature and character of the person
in power as president.
How weak is he? How acceptable is he to all segments of the country?
How knowledgeable and skilled in politics is he? Who are his henchmen?
What are the dynamics for the next election?” A professor of political
science and former minister of information, Sam Oyovbaire posits that
the sociology of Nigeria must be taken into consideration when analysing
the outcome of the 2015 elections
“First, there has been an unnecessary hype and exaggeration of the
possibility of two major parties. We have failed to take into
consideration what I call the sociology of the Nigerian political
process in the sense of the fragmentation of interest and the
ethnicisation or regionalisation of the overall landscape”.
He continues “Though it is the ideal, nothing dramatic has happened in
the sociology of the political landscape of the country that would throw
up such a development”.
Death for PDP
The general excitement of the merger of the new PDP with the All
Progressives Congress, APC, signposts the death, through weakening, of
the PDP. So much is this belief that supporters of the APC and cronies
of the merging rump from PDP are already basking in euphoria and
dreaming of outright victory in 2015. The timing of the mergers,
including the coming together of All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP,
Congress for Progressive Change,CPC, and the Action Congress of Nigeria,
ACN, is instructive.
It came two years ahead of the elections, giving enough room for
stability and planning. Previous mergers and alliances in Nigeria’s
history were usually snapped-up in a hurry just months before a major
election.
For Akwa-Ibom state Governor and Chairman of the PDP Governors
Forum,Chief Godswill Akpabio, the merger is a welcome development.
Indeed, he had called on them to leave the party before they eventually
did.
His cold warning to them is that ‘you will lose your followers. They may
not be ready to go with you. We leaders always exaggerate our
importance believing that our followers will always follow us to any
where without question”.
But the Director of Press and Publications to Adamawa state Governor
,Murtala Nyako, Sajoh Ahmed has a different rationale for their action.
“This party, PDP will die and we will help in burying it”.
Oyovbaire however contends that the PDP should immediately retool itself
before the elections, otherwise it will face serious challenges.
But while the excitement is in the air, there are niggling posers on the
fate of PDP. These posers include issues like the capacity of APC to
wrest power as it is not imbued with common enrobing manifestoes or
ideology.
The central objective of all the people in the party is to stop President Goodluck Jonathan from winning the 2015 elections.
Nothing more. Having failed in stopping him in PDP, through
surreptitious control of the party machinery, their sights are set on
2015. And if that fails, that is the end as you will see most of them
crawl back to the party.
For the APC, Oyovbaire cautions that it must go beyond being a platform
for election only, and plan to be a serious political party with long
term objectives.” The battle for the control of the political space has
just begun. The party with more vision, guts, and poise will emerge
victorious at the end of the day.